The cycle and change

"He changed for 2 weeks and then…"

You may have lived through something similar, or know someone who has: this cycle of violence, followed by apologies, followed by promises of change, followed by fresh violence. It is one of the most insidious and destructive patterns in toxic relationships.

And sooner or later, the anguished question finally arises:

Is it real, this time?

He promised to change. He seems sincere. He's doing better, he's going to therapy, he's so gentle. The last few months have been wonderful. Is it a real renewal? Or is it simply another "honeymoon" phase?

This chapter gives you the lucidity needed to see this cycle for what it is — and to tell the illusion apart from genuine change.

The concept: the trap of forgiveness and false renewal

The hard truth: forgiveness doesn't change patterns. Understanding doesn't change violence. Hope is not enough.

The fundamental problem is that the cycle of violence structurally includes phases of "false renewal" — those moments when the oppressor suddenly becomes again the person you loved, in order to win you back after the explosion. It is the most trapping phase, because it looks so much like real change.

What you will learn here:

• Why this cycle is so powerful and why you return
• Why promises of change almost always fail
• The tell-tale signs of false renewal and the indicators of real change
• Realistic timelines — how long to wait?
• How to leave for good (if you are the victim), how to truly change (if you are the oppressor)

Warning

This chapter is not intended to make you stay in a dangerous relationship "in case" they change. Safety is the absolute priority. The information here serves to evaluate with lucidity, not to give false hope.

What science says

The classic cycle of violence

In 1979, the psychologist Lenore Walker identified a pattern she called the cycle of violence. This model, discussed and refined since, remains a useful framework for understanding abusive dynamics with episodic violence. It comprises three phases:

Phase 1 — Tension building (a few days to several months). Growing irritability, critical comments, sarcasm. You "walk on eggshells," you try to do everything so as not to disturb them. Communication deteriorates. You feel that something is going to "explode."

Phase 2 — Explosion of violence (a few hours to a few days). Discharge of tension: insults, shouting, blows, destruction of objects. Physical, verbal, sexual violence. The oppressor "loses control" — or claims to. You live in terror.

Phase 3 — Honeymoon / reconciliation (a week to two months). The oppressor apologises, makes promises of change ("it will never happen again"), becomes attentive, loving, offers gifts and sweet words. They seem "truly sorry."

And then the cycle starts again. It is precisely this Phase 3 — the "honeymoon" — that is the deadly trap. It makes you believe that this time, it is different.

The shocking statistics

Returns are the norm, not the exception:

• Most victims make several attempts before a final departure
• Many return after a first separation, or after leaving a refuge

Recidivism is frequent:

• The risk of recidivism is highest in the first 3 months after leaving
• The majority of domestic homicides occur during separation or in the months that follow — the danger increases at the moment of leaving, it does not diminish (danger peak documented by Jacquelyn Campbell's work on the Danger Assessment)

Promises of change almost always fail:

• Very few oppressors truly change without intensive professional intervention
• "False renewal" typically lasts a few weeks before the return to patterns
• The great majority of promises are followed by fresh violence

Science's conclusion? The cycle is predictable. The return is understandable. Change without intensive help is extremely rare — but a minority of oppressors change durably when they engage seriously. Real renewal exists. False renewal exists. And they look terribly alike at the start.

The myths of the cycle vs. reality

What we tell ourselves	What science says
"This time is different"	Changes without help rarely last more than a few weeks
"They really love me"	Love is not incompatible with violence
"If I forgive, it will get better"	Forgiveness doesn't change patterns
"It was my fault"	Nothing justifies violence — ever
"They were under pressure"	Stress is a factor, not an excuse
"Next time will be the last"	Each resumption resembles the previous one
"I can help them change"	Love doesn't heal abusive patterns
"It's not that bad"	Violence worsens over time

False renewal: anatomy of an illusion

False renewal — also called the honeymoon phase or temporary improvement — is a period when the oppressor modifies their behaviour in a positive way, but not durably.

Fundamental characteristics: extrinsic motivation (they change because they are forced to — ultimatum, threat of leaving, legal intervention); superficial changes (they modify behaviours, not thought patterns); limited duration (a few weeks); progressive return to patterns; no total responsibility.

The 7 tell-tale signs of false renewal

1. Verbal promises without measurable actions. "I promise you it will never start again," "You'll see, I'm really changing" — but with no concrete plan, no dates, no visible actions (therapy, programme, life changes). Research shows that promises without an action plan are a major predictor of recidivism.

2. "Perfect" but temporary behaviour. Suddenly, the oppressor becomes ideal for a few weeks, as in the initial seduction phase. But it is too perfect to be real: the changes are in intensity, not in depth. As soon as the pressure drops, the patterns return.

3. Change only under pressure. The oppressor changes only when you threaten to leave; as soon as you regain confidence, the efforts diminish. The motivation is external, not internal — yet intrinsic motivation is clearly more predictive of success.

4. Minimisation of the past. "I just overreacted, you provoked me," "It wasn't that bad," "You're exaggerating." No complete recognition of the harm, blame shifting. Fully recognising one's acts, without minimisation or blame shifting, is one of the rare predictors of lasting change — though no precise ratio has been established.

5. No serious therapy (or quick abandonment). "I'll handle this on my own"; or 2–3 sessions then stopping. Abusive patterns are entrenched: they are not repaired with good intentions. Programme dropouts have a markedly higher recidivism rate.

6. Persistent controlling behaviour. They are "perfect" but continue to control: subtle phone checks, jealousy disguised as "concern," decisions made without consulting you. The hard core of the abusive behaviour remains intact.

7. Progressive return to patterns. Weeks 1–4: everything is perfect. Weeks 5–8: small criticisms reappear. Weeks 9–12: tension, small conflicts. Week 13 and beyond: return to the abusive normal. This is the classic pattern — a gradual, not sudden, return.

Real renewal: anatomy of lasting change

Real renewal is a lasting and deep change in patterns of thought, emotion, and behaviour.

Fundamental characteristics: intrinsic motivation (they choose to change); fundamental changes (transformation of thought patterns); prolonged duration (6 to 12+ months observable); total responsibility; serious commitment (therapy or programme of 12 to 24+ months); actions over promises.

The 10 indicators of real change

1. Total responsibility — "I have a problem with anger/control" (and not "I'm sorry IF you were hurt").
2. Serious therapy — batterer intervention programme (BIP) or specialised therapy, commitment of 12 to 24 months minimum, without dropping out as soon as things "get better."
3. Observable changes over 6+ months — no episode of violence, consistent behaviour across all contexts.
4. Voluntary transparency — you can check their phone, accounts, movements, without being forced to.
5. Respect for boundaries without contesting — when you say "no," it is accepted, without negotiation or guilt-tripping.
6. Authentic interest in your well-being — not performed, not self-interested.
7. Concrete repair actions — financial repairs, steps taken, life changes, not only words.
8. Changes across all contexts — at work, with family, with friends, not only "in front of you."
9. Responsible management of relapses — a minor relapse is owned immediately, shared with the therapist, followed by adjustments.
10. Confirmed long-term support — therapy or continuous follow-up over 12 to 24+ months, even 5 to 15 years (Gondolf, 2004).

The comparison table: false vs. real renewal

Aspect	False renewal	Real renewal
Duration	A few weeks	6–12+ months
Motivation	External (pressures)	Internal (personal choice)
Promises	General, vague	Specific, with action plan
Actions	Words > deeds	Deeds > words
Responsibility	Partial, justified	Total, without excuse
Therapy	None or superficial	Serious, 6–12+ months
Control	Persists (subtle forms)	Truly disappears
Transparency	Resists verification	Opens to verification
Relapses	Full return to patterns	Minor, managed responsibly

The lucidity test

To evaluate whether the change you observe is likely to last, this book offers a research-based objective test: a scored questionnaire that distinguishes real renewal from false.

※ The lucidity test

The full test (revealing questions on responsibility, actions, and respect for boundaries, and interpretation by score tiers) is detailed in Chapter 14 — The lucidity test.

In summary, three tiers:

— Low score: false renewal, high risk of relapse — base no long-term plan on these changes. — Intermediate score: partial change, moderate risk — observe with caution for a further 6 to 12 months. — High score: real renewal probable — you can consider the future with greater confidence, while maintaining vigilance.

The guiding principle: actions speak louder than promises, and only sustained, measurable change over time testifies to an authentic transformation.

Realistic timelines: how long to wait?

• 6 months — minimum period to begin evaluating whether changes are consistent (zero violence, constant respect for boundaries, active participation in therapy).
• 12 months — period from which research begins to consider change "potentially lasting."
• 18 to 24 months — optimal period, from which the recidivism rate drops significantly; new habits entrenched, identity transformed ("I'm no longer that person").

Changes of less than 6 months are not considered indicators of success by experts.

The danger periods

Relapse is more likely at certain moments:

• 0–3 months — highest-risk period; many false renewals collapse here.
• 6–12 months — second critical period; some oppressors tire of the "effort."
• 12–18 months — vigilance often drops after a completed programme.
• Major stress — job loss, financial problems, illness can trigger a relapse.

The special case of narcissism

Clinical work converges: narcissism strongly reduces the chances of real change.

• A very low success rate, markedly lower than that observed in non-narcissistic people.
• "Narcissistic injury" is often the trigger for violence.
• The lack of true empathy is a nearly insurmountable obstacle.

Why it is so hard: the narcissist doesn't see their flaws (illusory perfection); they don't truly feel the other's pain (lack of empathy); they shift blame; failure is unacceptable to them and so denied; letting go of control is perceived as weakness.

If you are with a narcissist

Real change is extremely rare. Promises will be even more brilliant (narcissists are masters of the art of seducing and promising) and false renewals even more convincing (they often believe their own lies). The decision to leave is often the only healthy option. Some narcissists can change, but it is improbable and generally demands years of specialised therapy.

The signs you don't see (victim's side)

If you are the victim, denial and hope blur your vision. Here are the signs the cycle is becoming entrenched:

1. The tension phase shortens. At the start, the "calm" phase lasted months; now, barely a few days. The cycle accelerates, the violence intensifies.
2. Apologies become automatic. "Sorry" is said without emotion, the promises are the same each time. It has become a script, a learned pattern to manipulate.
3. You begin to "normalise." You minimise the violence, excuse the oppressor, doubt your own perception. Trauma bonding sets in, your self-esteem erodes.
4. Your network moves away. Your friends tell you "Leave!", you isolate yourself to avoid judgement, you lie about your relationship. Isolation increases your vulnerability.
5. You lose hope. "This is my life now." Emotional burnout, depression, suicidal risk increase.

The way out: how to leave for good

Step 1: recognise that you have the right to leave

Nothing obliges you to stay — neither children, nor money, nor shame, nor fear, nor promises, nor time invested. You have the right to safety.

Step 2: understand that leaving is dangerous

The risk of homicide is highest in the 3 months following separation. Prepare yourself: don't leave during an argument, prepare a safety plan with professionals, have a "departure kit" ready (documents, money, keys), inform trusted people (without telling the oppressor), change your passwords and numbers.

Step 3: get professional help

Family-law lawyer, victim-support association, trauma-specialised therapist, emergency shelter if necessary.

Step 4: cut ties (or secure them)

If you have children together: use a third party for handovers, put everything in writing (text, email), avoid direct contact, document everything (evidence of violence, threats). If sharing is impossible: public place for handovers, always accompanied, clear time limits, leave the situation if it escalates.

Step 5: rebuild

Healing takes time. It is normal to cry, to doubt, to be afraid, to feel alone. But know this: thousands of people get out every year; life after is possible — and often beautiful; you are not responsible for the oppressor; you deserve a safe and healthy relationship. And if you returned, it is not a failure: most victims return several times, and each departure brings you closer to the final departure.

The healing path (for the oppressor)

If you are the oppressor and you truly want to change, here is the path — which corresponds point for point to the 10 indicators of real renewal.

Step 1: total recognition

What you did is unjustifiable. Your apologies are empty without action. You alone are responsible for your violence. Your partner does not "owe" you forgiveness.

Step 2: seek help immediately

Batterer intervention programme (BIP), therapist specialised in domestic violence, support groups for oppressors, psychiatrist if depression, addiction, or personality disorder. Therapy is individual — no couples therapy, which is dangerous in this context (clinical consensus: it can reinforce control and expose the victim).

Step 3: long-term commitment

2 to 5 years of work minimum. Total responsibility, no excuses. Accept that your partner may never return.

Step 4: understand that forgiveness is not owed

Your partner owes you nothing. Forgiveness is their choice, not your right. Wanting to "make amends" can be a form of control. The best repair: change for good.

Step 5: change for yourself, not for others

Change because it is right. So as not to hurt anyone anymore. To become a better person — not to "get back" your partner.

Convergence of the wisdoms

The ancient wisdoms and modern science converge on the distinction between false and real renewal.

Al-Ghazâlî (1058–1111): the diseases of the heart and the cardinal virtues

Al-Ghazâlî identified four "mother" virtues from which all others derive (Al-Ghazâlî, The Revival of the Religious Sciences, 1105 — Book XXII, The Cardinal Virtues): Wisdom (discernment), Courage (moral strength), Continence (self-mastery), Justice (balance).

False renewal is a deficit of these four virtues: lack of Wisdom (the oppressor doesn't see the gravity of their acts), of Courage (they don't have the strength to truly change), of Continence (they don't master themselves over time), of Justice (they don't recognise the harm).

Real renewal is their rebalancing: Wisdom (understanding of the problem), Courage (facing one's flaws), Continence (mastery over 12 to 24+ months), Justice (complete recognition and repair).

His method: make the diagnosis, correct by applying the opposite, endure the bitterness of the treatment, increase progressively.

Jung (1875–1961): Shadow work

In false renewal, the oppressor denies their Shadow ("I'm not like that"), projects their flaws onto the other, flees the confrontation with themselves. In real renewal, they confront their Shadow, integrate their flaws instead of projecting them, do the necessary work on themselves.

"Whoever looks outside dreams; whoever looks inside awakens." — C.G. Jung

Real renewal is an awakening to oneself.

Modern science: convergent illumination

Al-Ghazâlî's four virtues correspond to the four success factors identified by research: Wisdom → introspection/awareness of the problem; Courage → intrinsic motivation/commitment; Continence → self-control/maintenance of changes; Justice → responsibility/repair. Jung's "Shadow work" corresponds to what modern psychology calls insight, a major predictor of success in treatment programmes. Trauma bonding, finally, explains why the victim returns — it is not their fault.

Concept	Al-Ghazâlî (11th century)	Jung (20th century)	Modern science
Problem	Diseases of the heart	Unintegrated Shadow	Entrenched patterns, trauma bonding
False change	Deficit of virtues	Denial of the Shadow	Extrinsic motivation, minimisation
Real change	Rebalancing of virtues	Confronting the Shadow	Insight, total responsibility, 12–24 months
Hope	Yes, with effort	Yes, with courage	Rare but real

Practical exercises

Exercise 1: the cycle-and-renewal journal

Goal: objectively document patterns to break denial and tell true from false.

Each week (or each evening in case of crisis), note: your partner's mood, signs of tension, incidents (words, gestures), apologies received, promises made (exactly what was said), concrete actions (what was done, with dates), the duration of changes, relapses (even minor). After 3 to 4 weeks, reread: the phases are predictable, honeymoon love is part of the cycle, are promises followed by actions?

Exercise 2: the letter of lucidity

Goal: clarify your truth for yourself.

Write a letter to yourself (that you won't send): If my best friend were living this, what would I tell them? In 5 years, how do I want to remember this period? If I left today, what would be the worst scenario? And the best? What am I most afraid of? What do I need to feel safe? Reread this letter when you doubt.

Exercise 3: the safety plan

Goal: prepare your safe departure.

List to prepare: important documents, money set aside, useful numbers (police, lawyer, refuge), a bag with essentials in a safe place, a trusted person informed, passwords changed, a copy of evidence (messages, photos, medical certificates). Identify where you will go, how, and when (a calm moment, not during an argument). Do this exercise with a professional if possible.

Exercise 4: the 3-contexts test and the "before / after" list

Goal: check whether changes are generalised and lasting.

Observe behaviour in three contexts (at home with you; at work; with family or friends). Are the changes consistent everywhere, or only at home? Then list the abusive behaviours "before," and for each note whether it has changed (completely / partially / not / worse) and for how long (less than a month / 1–3 / 3–6 / 6–12 / more than 12 months). If the majority have changed "completely" for "more than 6 months" in all contexts → positive sign.

Exercise 5: the violence inventory (for the oppressor)

Goal: recognise your behaviour to begin changing.

List each act of violence committed (hurtful words, shouting, intimidating gestures, blows, financial control, forced isolation, threats). For each: approximate date, context, impact on your partner, your apologies, whether you reoffended afterward. Then answer honestly: how many times have you promised to change? How many times have you kept that promise? What is the real reason you are violent? Are you ready to do the necessary work?

Summary of key points

1. The cycle of violence is predictable — three phases (tension → explosion → honeymoon), identified by Lenore Walker in 1979, then discussed and refined.
2. Returns are normal but not obligatory — victims often return several times; each departure brings you closer to the final departure.
3. Promises almost always fail — false renewals rarely last more than a few weeks; real change is rare without intensive help.
4. False renewal is recognised by 7 signs (promises without actions, perfect but temporary behaviour, change under pressure, minimisation, no therapy, persistent control, progressive return).
5. Real renewal is recognised by 10 indicators — including total responsibility, serious therapy, observable changes over 6+ months, voluntary transparency, changes across all contexts.
6. Timelines matter — 6 months minimum, 12 months "potentially lasting," 18 to 24 months optimal. Less than 6 months is not a success indicator.
7. Narcissism changes everything — real change is extremely rare there; leaving is often the only healthy option.
8. Forgiveness doesn't change patterns — understanding is not healing; forgiving does not mean staying; love is not enough.
9. Leaving is dangerous but possible — danger peak in the 3 months after separation; preparation is essential.
10. The wisdoms converge — Al-Ghazâlî, Jung, and modern science agree: real change demands radical lucidity, courage, time, and actions.

Final message

The distinction between false and real renewal is one of the hardest — and most important — you have to make.

What we know for certain: false renewal is structural to the cycle of violence. Real renewal exists, but it is rare and is measured in months, not weeks. Time is the best revealer. And safety remains the absolute priority — no "potential for change" is worth putting your life in danger.

The biggest trap? Believing that this time will be different because they "seem sincere."

The greatest truth? Real change is seen not in the intensity of promises — it is seen in the consistency of actions over the long term.

If you are the victim: it is not your fault, you are not alone, there is a way out, and life after is beautiful.

If you are the oppressor: recognising is the first step, asking for help is an act of courage, change is possible but hard, and you alone are responsible.

The cycle stops when you decide it stops. And remember: lucidity is the first form of freedom.